Satellite Observations Verifying Anthropogenic Global Warming Theory and Its Climate Model Simulations
报告题目： Satellite Observations Verifying Anthropogenic Global Warming Theory and Its Climate Model Simulations
报告人： Dr. Cheng-Zhi Zou
报告时间： 2016 年07 月04 日 星期一, 10:00
报告时间： 2016 年07 月04 日 星期一, 10:00
报告地点：大气所40号楼912
Satellite Observations Verifying Anthropogenic Global Warming Theory and Its Climate Model Simulations
Cheng-Zhi Zou
NOAA/NESDIS/Center for Satellite Applications and Research, College Park, Maryland, 20740, USA
Warming of the troposphere and cooling of the stratosphere are two central indicators of the anthropogenic global warming theory. Although mechanism of the tropospheric warming and stratospheric cooling in response to human-induced changes in atmospheric trace gases were well understood for more than half century, measurement of the rates of the atmospheric temperature changes has been a challenging task. After more than 15 years of effort, NOAA/STAR has developed a set of global atmospheric temperature climate data record from satellite microwave and infrared sounders starting from 1979 to present, capable of detecting atmospheric temperature trends and verifying climate model simulations of the anthropogenic global warming theory with high accuracy. This seminar will introduce the NOAA temperature climate data record and its aplications in verifying climate model simulations. The climate data record covers the atmopheric layers from the mid-troposphere to the upper stratosphere developed from satellite Microwave Sounders and Infrared Sounders. These datasets have been used to validat climate model simulations including CMIP5 ocean-atmosphere coupling models and chemistry climate models. Prelimiary results on the validation will be presented in this presentation. It is demonstrated that the average of CMIP5 model simulations and chemistry climate models can represent the climate change in the past four decades with good accuracy, at least in global means. This result helps the society to build confidence in future climate projections using climate models.
卫星观测检验人为全球变暖理论及其气候模式模拟
Cheng-Zhi Zou（邹成智）
NOAA/NESDIS/Center for Satellite Applications and Research, College Park, Maryland, 20740, USA
对流层增暖平流层降温是人为全球变暖理论的2个主要指标。半个多世纪以来，尽管人们已经充分认识到人类活动导致的大气微量气体变化造成对流层增暖和平流层降温的机理，但大气温度变率的测量一直是一项极具挑战的任务。经过长达20年的努力，NOAA开发了一套源于卫星微波和红外观测，自1979年至今的全球大气温度气候数据集。该数据集包括了从对流层底部到平流层顶部的整个大气温度，能够检测大气温度变化趋势，检验人为全球变暖的气候模拟结果，具有很好的精确性。本讲座将介绍NOAA温度气候数据集，及其在检验气候模拟中的应用。该数据集已有效地应用于CMIP5海气耦合模式和化学气候模式的检验。初步检验结果表明：多个CMIP5模式的平均和个别化学气候模式至少在全球平均上能够准确地反映过去40年平流层的气候变化。这些结果有助于科学界对用气候模式预测将来的气候变化增强信心。
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