Is Extreme Typhoon Precipitation Increasing with Global Warming?

文章来源: 发布时间:2015-01-27


报告题目:Is Extreme Typhoon Precipitation Increasing with Global Warming?
报 告 人:Prof. Shaw Chen Liu(刘绍臣  教授)
报告地点:大气所101会议室
报告时间:2015年02月04(周三),14:00-15:00

Abstract
Significant  increases  in  precipitation  intensity,  as  a  result  of  increases  of  heavy precipitation  and/or  decreases  of  light  precipitation  have  been  reported  over widespread  regions  of  the  globe.  The  increase  in  precipitation  intensity  has  been attributed  to  global  warming.  Trenberth  et  al.  [2003]  hypothesized  that  the precipitation intensity should increase at about the same rate as atmospheric moisture which increases at about 7% K-1 according to the Clausius-Clapeyron equation. They argued  that  the  increase  in  heavy  rainfall  could  even  exceed  the  7%  K-1  because additional  latent  heat  released  from  the  increased  water  vapor  could  invigorate  the storms. An invigorated storm could remove moisture by more than 7% K-1 from the atmosphere.  Heavy  precipitation  in  typhoons  also  has  been  observed  to  increase significantly  in  Taiwan.  In  this  work,  we  analyze  precipitation  intensity  of  global typhoons and find that the top 10% heavy precipitation of global typhoons increases by 200% for each degree increase in global temperature, yet the bottom 50% light precipitation  stays  constant.  The  relative  contributions  to  the  observed  increase  in heavy precipitation in typhoons from various processes will be discussed, including global warming, the translational speed of typhoon, the frequency of typhoon, and the intensity of typhoon. 
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